Commodity Exports to Remain Key Driver, Though Global Risks Continue to Cloud Outlook — CGS International
PETALING JAYA: Commodity-based exports are expected to remain a dominant force in Malaysia’s trade performance in the near term, supported by elevated global prices and stronger shipment volumes across key resource sectors.
According to research firm CGS International, commodities such as crude oil, refined petroleum products, and palm oil are likely to underpin export growth amid ongoing global uncertainties.
Economist Mas Aida Che Mansor said data from the Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia indicates that exports of crude oil and petroleum products recorded year-on-year growth in March 2026, reflecting resilient global demand.
Palm oil exports also delivered strong performance, likely driven by early procurement activities from China amid concerns over supply security.
“Export growth in the first quarter of 2026 reached 12.7 per cent year-on-year, significantly outperforming the 4.3 per cent recorded in the same period last year.
“This reflects both favourable base effects and stronger shipment volumes compared to the previous year,” she said in a research note.
At the same time, the electrical and electronics (E&E) sector continues to serve as a cornerstone of Malaysia’s export economy, maintaining positive shipment growth.
Mas Aida highlighted that global semiconductor sales in February 2026 recorded their strongest expansion in over 30 years, with the Asia Pacific region registering year-on-year growth exceeding 90 per cent.
This growth is largely driven by sustained demand for artificial intelligence-related technologies, which continue to fuel the semiconductor industry.
However, she cautioned that non-E&E manufacturing remains a drag on overall export momentum, particularly in segments such as chemicals and chemical products, which recorded double-digit declines in March 2026.
This reflects ongoing weakness in global demand within certain industrial sectors.
Meanwhile, external risks remain elevated due to prolonged geopolitical tensions in West Asia, which could disrupt energy supplies and global shipping routes.
Mas Aida noted that while higher commodity prices may support export values in the short term, they could also dampen global trade volumes and manufacturing activity if cost pressures persist.
She expects Malaysia’s exports to remain on a positive trajectory at least through the first half of 2026, although the outlook beyond that will depend heavily on geopolitical developments and the stability of global supply chains.
-wilayah.com.my
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